{
  "title": "Where Immigration Changes Will Reach Schools and Families First",
  "asOf": "2026-10-11",
  "figures": [
    {
      "id": "legal-timeline",
      "title": "Two September court orders changed the immediate policy baseline",
      "kind": "timeline",
      "scope": "July–October 2026 · legal status as of October 11",
      "sourceIds": [
        1,
        2,
        12
      ],
      "data": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-17",
          "label": "Fixed-admission rule published",
          "status": "Final rule",
          "detail": "Scheduled to take effect September 15"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-14",
          "label": "F/J implementation postponed",
          "status": "Court order",
          "detail": "Effective date and implementation restrained"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-30",
          "label": "H-1B payment policies vacated",
          "status": "Court order",
          "detail": "Agency implementation, not proclamation text"
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-10-16",
          "label": "Covered filing fees change",
          "status": "Scheduled",
          "detail": "Only covered requests and filing categories"
        }
      ],
      "description": "Time-scaled milestones. Court orders and a scheduled fee change are separate events; no national cost or employment effect is inferred.",
      "noteId": 30
    },
    {
      "id": "wage-weighting",
      "title": "Higher wage levels receive more entries, without a guaranteed selection",
      "kind": "weights",
      "scope": "Fiscal 2027 · eligible cap-subject H-1B registrations",
      "sourceIds": [
        3
      ],
      "data": [
        {
          "label": "Level I",
          "value": 1
        },
        {
          "label": "Level II",
          "value": 2
        },
        {
          "label": "Level III",
          "value": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "Level IV",
          "value": 4
        }
      ],
      "description": "One beneficiary can receive one to four selection entries according to wage level. Entries are not odds, and the selection pool is not measured here. Cap-exempt employment follows a different route.",
      "noteId": 31
    },
    {
      "id": "teacher-destinations",
      "title": "Six states received three in five new exchange teachers",
      "kind": "bars",
      "scope": "Calendar 2025 · new J-1 teacher exchange visitors",
      "sourceIds": [
        5
      ],
      "data": [
        {
          "label": "North Carolina",
          "value": 933
        },
        {
          "label": "Texas",
          "value": 671
        },
        {
          "label": "Florida",
          "value": 523
        },
        {
          "label": "Illinois",
          "value": 437
        },
        {
          "label": "California",
          "value": 320
        },
        {
          "label": "South Carolina",
          "value": 320
        }
      ],
      "description": "Selected states total 3,204 of 5,276 new visitors (60.7 percent). Other destinations: 2,072. These are arrivals, not teaching jobs at risk or district staffing shares.",
      "noteId": 32
    },
    {
      "id": "education-petitions",
      "title": "Education occupations accounted for 24,330 H-1B approvals",
      "kind": "split",
      "scope": "Fiscal 2025 · petition approvals in the broad education category",
      "sourceIds": [
        4
      ],
      "data": [
        {
          "label": "Initial employment",
          "value": 12959
        },
        {
          "label": "Continuing employment",
          "value": 11371
        }
      ],
      "description": "Total: 24,330. All H-1B approvals: 406,348; education share: 5.99 percent. Approvals can repeat workers and cover more than K–12 teaching.",
      "noteId": 33
    },
    {
      "id": "enrollment-cohorts",
      "title": "New international enrollment fell faster than the total population",
      "kind": "declines",
      "scope": "Fall 2025 vs. fall 2024 · 828 responding institutions",
      "sourceIds": [
        7
      ],
      "data": [
        {
          "label": "New international entrants",
          "value": -17
        },
        {
          "label": "Total, including OPT",
          "value": -1
        }
      ],
      "description": "Same survey, different cohorts. Percent change at respondent institutions; not a national census or an estimate of policy causation. The earlier Open Doors fall 2024 entrant decline uses a different survey scope.",
      "noteId": 34
    },
    {
      "id": "student-pathway",
      "title": "Study, training and H-1B work each require their own approval",
      "kind": "pathway",
      "scope": "Eligible F-1 pathway · rules assessed October 11, 2026",
      "sourceIds": [
        3,
        13,
        15
      ],
      "data": [
        {
          "label": "F-1 study",
          "detail": "Maintain student status and program requirements."
        },
        {
          "label": "Post-completion OPT",
          "detail": "Up to 12 months if authorized."
        },
        {
          "label": "STEM OPT extension",
          "detail": "Up to 24 additional months if the degree and employer qualify."
        },
        {
          "label": "H-1B sponsor",
          "detail": "A qualifying job and petitioning employer are required."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cap-exempt route",
          "detail": "A verified exemption avoids cap selection; petition requirements remain."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cap-subject route",
          "detail": "Selection under the weighted cap process is required before the cap petition."
        },
        {
          "label": "Work may begin",
          "detail": "Requires applicable approval, status, start date and work authorization. Visa issuance and admission may be separate."
        }
      ],
      "description": "The diagram separates optional practical training from sponsored H-1B employment. A STEM extension is not a mandatory step. Cap exemption changes the selection gate, not the need for a qualifying petition and authorization. Eligible cap-gap protection is a separate bridge, not automatic permission for every graduate.",
      "noteId": 35
    },
    {
      "id": "tuition-bridge",
      "title": "Tuition exposure depends on paying enrollment, net prices and costs",
      "kind": "formula",
      "scope": "Accounting identity · programs and cohorts have different tuition and persistence",
      "sourceIds": [
        6,
        7
      ],
      "data": [
        {
          "label": "Tuition revenue",
          "symbol": "R",
          "formula": "Σ (FTE_c × P_c)",
          "detail": "Add the product of paying student FTE and realized net tuition P across each program or cohort c."
        },
        {
          "label": "Tuition change",
          "symbol": "ΔR",
          "formula": "R_new − R_baseline",
          "detail": "Compare the new scenario with the baseline using the same time period."
        },
        {
          "label": "Avoidable cost change",
          "symbol": "ΔC",
          "formula": "C_new − C_baseline",
          "detail": "Only include costs that actually change. A cost saving makes ΔC negative."
        },
        {
          "label": "Budget contribution change",
          "symbol": "ΔB",
          "formula": "ΔR − ΔC",
          "detail": "A fall in tuition can be partly offset by lower avoidable costs; fixed costs remain."
        }
      ],
      "description": "Accounting explanation, not a simulated forecast. Calculate paying FTE multiplied by realized tuition after grants and discounts for each program or cohort, then sum. Compare the new and baseline tuition totals, and subtract the change in avoidable costs. Replacement, student mix and persistence change the inputs; restricted aid and fixed costs require separate records. Total international headcount, including OPT, is not a count of tuition-paying student FTE.",
      "noteId": 36
    },
    {
      "id": "family-clocks",
      "title": "At a work-card expiry date, the renewal outcome determines the work gap",
      "kind": "clocks",
      "scope": "Eligible H-4 renewal scenarios · U.S. public K–12 enrollment",
      "sourceIds": [
        8,
        9
      ],
      "data": [
        {
          "label": "Valid work authorization",
          "detail": "Work can continue while the document and authorization remain valid."
        },
        {
          "label": "Expiry date",
          "detail": "Check whether new authorization or an applicable extension is in place."
        },
        {
          "label": "Renewal approved",
          "detail": "The new authorization can support continued employment."
        },
        {
          "label": "Renewal still pending",
          "detail": "A work gap may occur if no applicable extension or exception applies."
        },
        {
          "label": "Child’s school enrollment",
          "detail": "The public K–12 enrollment right continues through either work outcome."
        }
      ],
      "description": "Illustrative decision path, without invented calendar dates or processing durations. Renewals filed on or after October 30, 2025 are subject to the new rule, with exceptions and earlier valid extensions preserved. A work-card expiry date and a child’s right to public K–12 enrollment are distinct.",
      "noteId": 37
    },
    {
      "id": "labor-market-scales",
      "title": "Firm and local labor-market studies measure different effects",
      "kind": "research-scale",
      "scope": "Earlier H-1B lotteries · firm and city-level causal studies",
      "sourceIds": [
        19
      ],
      "data": [
        {
          "label": "Firm level",
          "study": "Doran, Gelber and Isen · fiscal 2006/2007 lotteries",
          "exposure": "An additional H-1B approval at a winning firm",
          "outcome": "Other-worker employment was displaced within the firm; little detectable patenting effect."
        },
        {
          "label": "Local labor-market level",
          "study": "Peri, Shih and Sparber · 2007/2008 lotteries",
          "exposure": "Greater restrictions on H-1B computer-worker hiring",
          "outcome": "Native-born employment and wage growth declined in the local computer labor market."
        }
      ],
      "description": "The two studies use different units, earlier lottery cohorts and different outcome measures. Worker substitution within a firm and complementary employment across a local labor market are not the same estimand. Neither result yields a numerical forecast for the fiscal 2027 wage-weighted system; no probabilities or effect sizes are invented in the schematic.",
      "noteId": 38
    },
    {
      "id": "fee-status",
      "title": "Four fee questions require four different legal checks",
      "kind": "status",
      "scope": "Legal status as of October 11, 2026",
      "sourceIds": [
        2,
        12,
        20,
        21
      ],
      "data": [
        {
          "label": "Presidential $100,000 payment",
          "status": "Implementation vacated",
          "detail": "Agency policies vacated September 30"
        },
        {
          "label": "Proposed $103,265 cap fee",
          "status": "Proposed",
          "detail": "No operative obligation at the research date"
        },
        {
          "label": "High-share employer fee",
          "status": "Effective September 9",
          "detail": "50+ U.S. workers and more than half in H-1B/L-1"
        },
        {
          "label": "Inflation-adjusted filing fees",
          "status": "Scheduled October 16",
          "detail": "Only covered forms, requests and categories"
        }
      ],
      "description": "The amounts and categories cannot be added into a universal H-1B price. Covered-employer H-1B/L-1 fees differ; the scheduled notice addresses specified benefit requests.",
      "noteId": 39
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": 1,
      "publisher": "U.S. District Court, District of Massachusetts",
      "title": "Presidents’ Alliance v. DHS: preliminary injunction postponing the F/J/I rule",
      "url": "https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mad.305059/gov.uscourts.mad.305059.51.0.pdf",
      "detail": "September 14, 2026; operative paragraphs 2–5. The effective date is postponed and implementation restrained, pending further order or resolution on the merits.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": [
        {
          "title": "DHS fixed-period admission final rule, July 17, 2026",
          "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/html/2026/07/17/2026-14439.html"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 2,
      "publisher": "U.S. District Court, Northern District of California",
      "title": "Global Nurse Force v. Trump: order vacating agency H-1B payment policies",
      "url": "https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.457426/gov.uscourts.cand.457426.130.0.pdf",
      "detail": "September 30, 2026; conclusion on pages 34–35. The order concerns implementing agency policies, not vacatur of the presidential proclamation itself.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 3,
      "publisher": "Department of Homeland Security",
      "title": "Weighted Selection Process for Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions",
      "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/12/29/2025-23853/weighted-selection-process-for-registrants-and-petitioners-seeking-to-file-cap-subject-h-1b",
      "detail": "Final rule published December 29, 2025; effective February 27, 2026. Weighting concerns eligible cap-subject registrations; entry counts are not individual selection probabilities.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 4,
      "publisher": "U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services",
      "title": "Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers, Fiscal Year 2025",
      "url": "https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/fy25_h1b_characteristics_congress_signed_04242026.pdf",
      "detail": "Table 3, occupations in education: 12,959 initial and 11,371 continuing approvals. The broad occupational category does not identify K–12 teachers or unique workers.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 5,
      "publisher": "U.S. Department of State",
      "title": "2025 New Teacher Exchange Visitors",
      "url": "https://j1visa.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2025-Teacher-Exchange-Visitors-CY-Flyer.pdf",
      "detail": "Calendar-year flyer, destinations and total. Counts are new exchange visitors, not the stock of teachers or district vacancy exposure.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": [
        {
          "title": "Teacher program eligibility and extensions",
          "url": "https://j1visa.state.gov/programs/teacher"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 6,
      "publisher": "Institute of International Education",
      "title": "Open Doors 2025: international student enrollment",
      "url": "https://www.iie.org/news/open-doors-2025-press-release",
      "detail": "Published November 17, 2025. Academic-year 2024–25 total: 1,177,766, including practical training; fall 2024 new entrants declined seven percent.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 7,
      "publisher": "Institute of International Education",
      "title": "Fall 2025 Snapshot on International Student Enrollment",
      "url": "https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED681027.pdf",
      "detail": "November 2025; key findings and methodology. 828 respondent institutions, representing 63 percent of the international students counted by Open Doors; not a census of fall 2025 or 2026 enrollment.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 8,
      "publisher": "Department of Homeland Security",
      "title": "Removal of the Automatic Extension of Employment Authorization Documents",
      "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-10-30/pdf/2025-19702.pdf",
      "detail": "Interim final rule effective October 30, 2025. Earlier valid extensions and extensions authorized by law or Federal Register notice are preserved. H-4 employment eligibility is separate from timely renewal of permission to work.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": [
        {
          "title": "Employment authorization for certain H-4 spouses",
          "url": "https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations/employment-authorization-for-certain-h-4-dependent-spouses"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 9,
      "publisher": "California Department of Education",
      "title": "Including Immigrant Families",
      "url": "https://www.cde.ca.gov/ls/pf/if/index.asp",
      "detail": "School enrollment rights and California school-access protections. Federal enforcement operating guidance and state duties must be distinguished.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": [
        {
          "title": "Federal protected-area guidance",
          "url": "https://www.ice.gov/ero/protected-areas"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 10,
      "publisher": "ERIC research repository",
      "title": "Immigration Enforcement Actions and Empty Desks: Persistent and Acute Attendance Effects",
      "url": "https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED681903.pdf",
      "detail": "Working paper, Table 2 and identification discussion. Main coefficient: 0.022 (2.2 percentage points); alternative event definitions: 0.020, 0.021 and 0.023. One district; 4,296 students and 1,362,221 student-days. Birthplace is not immigration status.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 11,
      "publisher": "Department of Labor",
      "title": "Improving Wage Protections for Temporary and Permanent Employment",
      "url": "https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2026-06017.pdf",
      "detail": "Notice of proposed rulemaking, scheduled publication March 27, 2026. The proposed wage-percentile changes are excluded from the operative-policy baseline.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 12,
      "publisher": "U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services",
      "title": "Fiscal Year 2027 Inflation Adjustment to H.R. 1 Immigration Fees",
      "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-10-01/pdf/2026-20187.pdf",
      "detail": "Published October 1, 2026; covered immigration benefit requests postmarked on or after October 16 require the adjusted fee. Scope and amount depend on the form and category.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": [
        {
          "title": "USCIS Form G-1055: current fee schedule",
          "url": "https://www.uscis.gov/g-1055"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 13,
      "publisher": "Department of Homeland Security",
      "title": "Modernizing H-1B Requirements and Providing F-1 Flexibility",
      "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/12/18/2024-29354/modernizing-h-1b-requirements-providing-flexibility-in-the-f-1-program-and-program-improvements",
      "detail": "Final rule effective January 17, 2025; cap exemptions, deference and eligible cap-gap extensions. Not every school or district is exempt.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 14,
      "publisher": "National Center for Education Statistics",
      "title": "Public schools faced hiring challenges before the 2024–25 academic year",
      "url": "https://nces.ed.gov/learn/press-release/most-u-s-public-elementary-and-secondary-schools-faced-hiring-challenges-start-2024-25-academic-year",
      "detail": "School Pulse Panel experimental survey. Seventy-four percent had difficulty filling at least one teaching vacancy. This is not a measurement of visa dependence.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 15,
      "publisher": "DHS Student and Exchange Visitor Program",
      "title": "2024 SEVIS by the Numbers",
      "url": "https://www.ice.gov/doclib/sevis/btn/25_0605_2024-sevis-btn.pdf",
      "detail": "Calendar 2024: active F/M SEVIS records, OPT students with an EAD who reported employment, and STEM OPT work-authorization counts use different definitions and windows from Open Doors. They must not be added to international-student enrollment or treated as an October 2026 workforce count.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 16,
      "publisher": "University of Colorado Denver",
      "title": "September 2026 Board of Regents Meeting Recap",
      "url": "https://news.ucdenver.edu/september-2026-board-of-regents-meeting-recap",
      "detail": "Fall 2026 vs. fall 2025: campus international enrollment declined 21.3 percent and total enrollment declined 1.4 percent. These institutional comparisons do not isolate an immigration-policy effect.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 17,
      "publisher": "NAFSA and JB International",
      "title": "Fall 2026 International Student Enrollment Outlook and Economic Impact Overview",
      "url": "https://www.nafsa.org/sites/default/files/media/document/Fall_2026_International_Student_Economic_Snapshot_NAFSA_JBI.pdf",
      "detail": "Survey-based outlook. Projected economic effects are not substituted for observed enrollment or institution-level net tuition.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 18,
      "publisher": "Department of Labor",
      "title": "Permanent Labor Certification (PERM)",
      "url": "https://flag.dol.gov/index.php/programs/perm",
      "detail": "Process descriptions: prevailing wage, recruitment and certification. Certification is distinct from an immigrant petition and visa-number availability.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 19,
      "publisher": "Doran, Gelber and Isen; Peri, Shih and Sparber",
      "title": "Historical H-1B lottery research: firm outcomes and local labor markets",
      "url": "https://globalmigration.ucdavis.edu/sites/g/files/dgvnsk821/files/inline-files/isen_0.pdf",
      "detail": "Doran, Gelber and Isen, March 2015, fiscal 2006/2007 firm lotteries: crowding out of other workers and limited detectable patenting effects. Peri, Shih and Sparber, April 2014, 2007/2008 city-level computer labor markets: restrictions reduced native-born employment and wage growth. Different outcomes and aggregation levels limit comparison.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": [
        {
          "title": "Peri, Shih and Sparber: Effects of Foreign Labor Supply",
          "url": "https://globalmigration.ucdavis.edu/sites/g/files/dgvnsk8181/files/2017-07/giovanni_the_effects_of_foreign.pdf"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 20,
      "publisher": "Department of Homeland Security",
      "title": "9-11 Response and Biometric Entry-Exit Fee for H-1B and L-1 Visas",
      "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/10/2026-16231/9-11-response-and-biometric-entry-exit-fee-for-h-1b-and-l-1-visas",
      "detail": "Final rule effective September 9, 2026. Covered employers have at least 50 U.S. employees and more than half their workforce in H-1B/L-1 status. Covered H-1B and L-1 fees differ.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 21,
      "publisher": "Department of Homeland Security",
      "title": "Fee for Certain H-1B Petitions: proposed rule",
      "url": "https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2026-17324.pdf",
      "detail": "Proposed $103,265 cap-subject petition charge. A proposal is not an operative payment obligation.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    },
    {
      "id": 22,
      "publisher": "Department of Labor",
      "title": "Foreign Labor Certification Performance and Disclosure Data",
      "url": "https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/foreign-labor/performance",
      "detail": "Labor Condition Applications may include multiple requested positions, amendments and repeats. Certification establishes neither a visa approval nor a hire.",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-11",
      "related": []
    }
  ],
  "notes": [
    {
      "id": 23,
      "title": "Research scope and dates",
      "markdown": "Policy and court status is assessed as of October 11, 2026. The main nationwide student and worker datasets describe earlier observation periods and cannot measure the full effects of policies adopted in 2026. Observed counts, legal rules, conditional mechanisms and future outcomes remain distinct.",
      "sourceIds": [
        1,
        2,
        4,
        5,
        6,
        7,
        15
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 24,
      "title": "Court orders and agency webpages",
      "markdown": "The operative court order governs the implementation finding. Agency webpages and earlier instructions can describe a different or older position. The proclamation text, implementing agency policies and court-ordered relief must be distinguished.",
      "sourceIds": [
        2
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 25,
      "title": "Local economic effects",
      "markdown": "International-student spending may affect housing and local businesses. No local expenditure panel or housing analysis supports a multiplier in this report; no national economic-loss estimate is derived from the enrollment comparisons.",
      "sourceIds": [
        6,
        7,
        17
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 26,
      "title": "Unmeasured household work gaps",
      "markdown": "The report does not establish a national count of households that lost workdays under the EAD renewal change. Any wage-gap estimate would require authorization categories, document-expiry dates, processing outcomes and actual employment.",
      "sourceIds": [
        8
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 27,
      "title": "School finance and longer-run effects",
      "markdown": "Absences, withdrawals and moves are different outcomes. Linked local records and the applicable state funding formula are needed to estimate longer-run learning, revenue and fixed-cost effects. No pooled national estimate is provided.",
      "sourceIds": [
        9,
        10
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 28,
      "title": "Exposure and data units",
      "markdown": "No employer-to-district, occupation-to-school or employer-to-IPEDS join is used. Published petition approvals, new exchange visitors, enrollment cohorts and practical-training authorizations use distinct units. LCA and PERM certification records may contain requested positions, amendments and repeat filings; certification does not establish a worker hired.",
      "sourceIds": [
        4,
        5,
        7,
        15,
        22
      ]
    }
  ]
}