The Blaine County School District in Idaho is confronting a 6.6 percent drop in enrollment for the 2026-27 school year, part of a 16.3 percent decline over five years, according to data presented to the school board and reported by Idaho Education News. The headcount of 2,685 students was 143 below the projection used to set the budget.
Crow told the board that the figures are tentative but urged early evaluation of cost-containment strategies, including increasing class sizes, cutting staff, limiting bus routes, and charging tuition for preschool. The district also faces a separate pressure on its labor relations.
Contract imposed after union rejection
The school board voted unanimously to impose a temporary compensation package worth $1.2 million after the Blaine County Education Association rejected a tentative agreement reached over the summer. It was the first time the union had rejected a tentative master agreement since 2017, as reported by Idaho Education News.
The imposed policy, Temporary Policy 801, includes raises for teachers who advanced on the salary schedule through experience, increases for health coverage, one-time bonuses of $1,195.65, and three additional sick days. Board Chairwoman Lara Stone said the terms were not modified from the rejected tentative agreement. Human Resources Director Kandy Blackburn confirmed that no base salaries were changed under the policy, according to the 5b Gazette.
Root causes: birth rates, housing costs, funding formula
Superintendent Jim Foudy attributed the enrollment decline to a combination of factors. The largest drop came in kindergarten, with 56 fewer students than projected, followed by sixth grade with 31 fewer. Among students who left the district, more than half moved to another Idaho county or another state; Foudy said the departures were likely because of housing costs and affordability in the Wood River Valley region. Another 18 percent transferred to a local charter or private school. The district's enrollment pattern reflects a national fall in birth rates: the U.S. birth rate declined 23 percent between 2007 and 2022, according to CDC data cited by the Mountain Express. Foudy reported that kindergarten projections based on birth rates have tracked within less than 2 percent variance over the past three years, suggesting the enrollment decline is structural.
Idaho's state funding formula, which shifted from enrollment-based to attendance-based in 2023, compounds the revenue loss. A state provision caps attendance drops at 3 percent for funding purposes, meaning the district receives 97 percent of last year's state funding even if attendance falls by more than 3 percent, as reported by Idaho Education News.
Cost cutting and levy options
The district already reduced staff through attrition: 14.5 full-time positions for 2024-25 and 9.8 for 2025-26, according to Idaho Education News. Trustees later voted to cut 16.4 positions for the 2026-27 school year to save $1.7 million, but a projected deficit of $940,000 remained after those cuts. Cost-containment discussions have included consolidating the Ernest Hemingway STEAM School middle school with Wood River Middle School beginning in fall 2026, estimated to save $900,000 annually and eliminate four to six teaching positions, one counselor, and one administrative position through attrition. Closing Bellevue Elementary and consolidating it with Hailey Elementary was also discussed as a potential $1 million savings, but Foudy said that option was unlikely due to concerns about school size and student outcomes, according to the Mountain Express.
Voters approved a two-year, $1.85 million per year supplemental levy in May 2024 with 74 percent support, funding programs including the GATE program, preschool, full-day kindergarten, and summer school. That levy expires in January 2026. The board has discussed placing a larger levy of $3.85 million per year on the November ballot to address a projected $5 million deficit by 2027, according to the Mountain Express.
Salaries and benefits make up 83.4 percent of the district's budget. Blaine County teachers are the highest paid in Idaho, with an average salary of $97,423. But union members have said the pay is not enough given rising housing, food, and healthcare costs. The entry-level salary in Blaine County is about $58,000, compared with about $46,000 nationally, according to Idaho Education News.
A national pattern of enrollment declines and contract standoffs
Blaine County is not alone in seeing enrollment declines translate into funding gaps. While statewide Idaho public school enrollment was essentially flat in fall 2024, eight of the state's 10 largest districts still saw year-over-year enrollment declines, according to Idaho Education News. School districts across the country have closed entire schools in recent years because of falling enrollment, a trend driven by a 23 percent drop in U.S. births between 2007 and 2022. Two-thirds of Idaho school districts use a supplemental levy to bridge funding gaps, according to the Mountain Express.
The decision to impose contract terms without a ratified agreement is unusual but appears to be within the legal bounds for Idaho districts. The move was characterized by both the district and the union as potentially unprecedented in the state, as reported by the Mountain Express. The temporary policy expires at the end of the fiscal year, allowing normal operations to continue while leaving the possibility for the union to ratify the same terms.
Evidence on enrollment trends
The 23 percent decline in U.S. birth rates between 2007 and 2022 is a well-established demographic trend that is now affecting school funding formulas tied to attendance or enrollment. The Blaine County superintendent said the district's kindergarten projections based on birth rates have tracked within less than 2 percent variance over the past three years, suggesting the enrollment decline is largely structural and predictable, according to the Mountain Express. The district's explanation for student departures (more than half moving away, 18 percent transferring to charter or private schools) has been reported to the board but has not been independently verified by a formal study, according to Idaho Education News.