Operation Metro Surge, a federal immigration enforcement campaign that deployed thousands of agents from Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection to the Twin Cities metropolitan area from December through February, has been followed by measurable K-12 enrollment declines in several Minnesota school districts. An analysis by Sahan Journal of 29 school districts and charter schools that have the highest percentages of English language learners found that enrollment fell by roughly 1,700 students between October 2025 and March 2026. During the same midyear period in the 2024-2025 school year, fewer than 80 students departed.
St. Paul Public Schools projected an English learner enrollment of 8,787 based on January counts, but actual enrollment stood at 8,245 as of October 1 — a gap of 542 students. Superintendent Stacie Stanley wrote in an October 12 letter to families that the decline was caused by Operation Metro Surge, changes in immigration patterns, and fewer new families arriving. The district expects a $4.9 million funding loss because of the drop.
Columbia Heights Public Schools enrolled 175 fewer students this year, a loss Superintendent Zena Stenvik said will reduce the district's budget by $2.5 million. Stenvik said that while the district typically experiences student mobility, the enrollment has not been replenished this year because of disruptions in immigration at the federal level.
District 191, covering Burnsville, Eagan and Savage, lost 200 students. District officials said the decline was expected because of both the immigration operation and a decreasing birth rate, and that the budget had been prepared for the drop.
North St. Paul-Maplewood-Oakdale (District 622) lost 141 students, most of whom were English language learners.
Per-pupil funding and budget shortfalls
Minnesota provides state education aid based on each district's average daily membership, so enrollment losses lead directly to revenue shortfalls. The Minnesota Department of Education stated that enrollment records serve as the basis for calculating that membership figure and the funding that follows, and said the current disruption is harming children. The department did not say whether it would adjust funding formulas for districts affected by the operation.
The St. Paul school board had already approved a budget cutting 16.3 English language teacher positions in June as part of a $51.5 million deficit reduction plan. The additional enrollment loss prompted a proposal to cut up to 18 more EL teachers, affecting at least two dozen schools, according to the president of the St. Paul Federation of Educators. The board voted unanimously to postpone a decision and directed the superintendent to find other savings, setting a new deadline of October 30.
Comparable enrollment drops in other states
Florida's Office of Economic and Demographic Research found that K-12 enrollment across all state programs dropped by 46,455 full-time equivalent students from its April 2025 projection to its January 2026 forecast. The agency said the decline was most consistent with a chilling effect from recent immigration policy changes, and it noted a 17,312 FTE drop in English for Speakers of Other Languages enrollment.
Los Angeles Unified School District's 2025-26 enrollment fell 4 percent from the prior year, about 7,000 more students than projected. Newcomer enrollment — English learners born outside the U.S. who have been in the country less than three years — totaled 16,668, about 9 percent below the estimate. Superintendent Alberto Carvalho attributed the declines to a climate of fear and instability from ongoing immigration enforcement.
Miami-Dade County Public Schools lost more than 13,000 students, well above the 5,000 it had anticipated. The superintendent said charter school competition also played a role.
Orange County Public Schools in Florida saw enrollment fall by approximately 6,600 students, more than double the 3,000 it had predicted losing to charter schools. A school board member said most of the unexpected departures involved children from immigrant families, and that schools with large immigrant populations experienced sharp increases in absenteeism after the federal government allowed immigration enforcement at schools in January 2025.
Evidence on immigration enforcement and school attendance
The Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research formally attributed the state's enrollment decline to a chilling effect, concluding that the drop was not caused by large-scale deportations but by families choosing not to use public services out of fear. The agency said the downward adjustment was expected to continue.
A survey by the UCLA Institute for Democracy, Education and Access, conducted in summer 2025 and reported by WUSF in January 2026, collected responses from more than 600 high school principals. More than half of the principals reported that immigrant parents or guardians had left the community during the 2024-2025 school year. The full survey results have not been publicly released.