The Migration Policy Institute in February 2026 released estimates that approximately 90,000 unauthorized immigrant students reach the end of high school each year and about 75,000 of them graduate. The figures are based on mid-2023 data from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey and Survey of Income and Program Participation, combined with four-year adjusted cohort graduation rates from the National Center for Education Statistics. The research was commissioned by the Presidents' Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, which concurrently published a companion report.
Estimate marks decline from earlier count
The 75,000 figure represents a drop from the institute's 2016-era estimate of about 98,000 graduates annually. California saw the largest numerical decline, falling from 27,000 to 11,000. Texas fell from 17,000 to 12,000. The changes reflect broader shifts in the unauthorized immigrant population.
Concentration in four states
Texas is home to about 12,000 of these graduates, or 16 percent of the national total. California accounts for 11,000 (15 percent), Florida 8,000 (11 percent), and New York 4,000 (5 percent). Together these four states account for 48 percent of the estimated graduates. The top 15 states account for about 81 percent.
Policy changes restrict postsecondary access
MPI notes that DACA remains closed to new applicants, eliminating a source of work authorization for many graduates. Some states have ended policies that allowed in-state tuition regardless of immigration status, potentially putting college out of reach. The Trump administration has terminated Temporary Protected Status for 13 of 17 countries that had designations when it took office in January 2025. Terminated countries include Venezuela (approximately 627,750 beneficiaries), Haiti (approximately 353,160), Honduras (approximately 70,070), Afghanistan, Nepal, Nicaragua, Syria, and Yemen. The Supreme Court allowed the Venezuela TPS termination to take effect in October 2025. After a June 2026 ruling, terminations for Haiti, Syria, and Yemen took effect in July 2026.
The MPI fact sheet also cites the rescission of an ICE policy that had kept enforcement actions away from schools and rising absenteeism as factors that may make it harder for students to complete high school. These mid-2023 estimates predate subsequent enforcement changes, so the institute states that current challenges may be greater than the data reflect.
Methodology and legal disputes
MPI's method assigns legal status to individuals in Census Bureau surveys using an approach developed with demographers at Penn State and Temple University, then applies NCES graduation rates by race and ethnicity. The institute cautions that these are survey-based estimates and that conditions since mid-2023 may differ.
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in January 2026 ruled that the Department of Homeland Security secretary lacked legal authority under the TPS statute to terminate the designations for Venezuela and Haiti, and that the decisions were not properly supported under federal administrative law. The government disputes this ruling. According to USCIS, Supreme Court stays have allowed the terminations to remain in effect while the appeal proceeds.